By using the output of our Artificial Intelligence (AI) models, we provide a probability for the chance of each team to win a certain match. Below, you can find how to read and understand our predictions. You will also find our NBA match result prediction accuracy results as well. Please note that these statistics keep changing as the season goes on and we update and publicly share our prediction results. You can find the latest updated prediction results here.
How to read & use predictions
- In the given example above, the chance of Home Team to win the match is given as 25%, based on the output of our AI models. And the chance of Away Team to win the match is given as 75%. Since the difference is fairly big, it is expected that the Away Team will be winning the match.
- If the winning probability of teams are close to each other, meaning that the difference between them is small, it indicates that it will be a close match and any of teams can essentially win the game.
- Note that the sum of winning probabilities of 2 teams for a given match will always make 100%; meaning that if the winning chance of a team increases, the chance of other team to win the match will automatically decrease.
NBA Prediction Accuracy Results
- If the wining probability of a team ends up being between 50% an 65%, our prediction accuracy for such matches have so far been 55%. (Please note that these figures can change throughout the season.) With other words, if the winning probability is below 65%, our models could predict the winner in roughly every other match. Such matches are obviously open to any result but it does not necessarily mean that one should completely avoied betting on them.
- Since such matches are prone to end with any result, handicap betting can be consiered. For instance, say that the Home Team is expected to win a given match with 55% probability based on our AI models, and the given odd by the bookmaker is 3.8x. Bookmakers can give such handicap options like "Home Team wins the match with +15.5 handicap", meaning that even if Home Team looses the match, you still win your bet as long as the Home Team does not loose it with a point difference that is bigger than 15. If you think that the bookmaker is not really generous with the handicap options, it can be safer to avoid betting on that match.
- Another approach, though a bit riskier, can be to check the odds first and then take the decision based on that. Since the accuracy is slightly over 50% for such matches where the confidence is between 50% and 65%, assuming that your bet will win half of the time, the bet can be put without using handicaps at all if the given odd is at least 2x or higher at the bookmaker. In such a case, the number of losses can increases but there is still a potential to make some profit in the long run. Again, this option is a bit riskier as mentioned.
- If the winning probability (confidence) happens to be between 65% and 75%, our accuracy so far has been 73%. (Again, note that these figures can change throughout the season.) This means that our models could predict the winner of almost 3 out of 4 matches correctly within this confidence interval. As seen, as the confidence level goes up, the accuracy is increasing as well.
- And in the last category, if the confidence goes above 75%, the accuracy of our models for the final match result predictions in NBA has been 88%. This simply means that our models could predict the winner correctly in almost 9 of 10 matches in NBA so far.
All these results indicate one thing that all matches are not necessarily safe to bet on in NBA. NBA is essentially very competitive as only the best of best basketball players in the world can play in this fascinating show. But by using the technology and advanced prediction models, it is reasonably possible to classify matches in a way as riskier or safer to bet on. A prediction can always fail as no one can essentially guarantee the result of a game in advance with 100% confidence but AI can help us to identify such matches where the level of risk is lower for betting purposes.
We also have a short video tutorial about our NBA accuracy results so far. Feel free to have a look at it as well.